The biggest tell about the politics of abortion right now is the way Republicans reacted to Monday's explosive Politico story on a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade.
The opinion, written by Justice Samuel Alito and reportedly representing the sentiments of a five-member conservative majority, would end the federal recognition of abortion rights that has existed for nearly 50 years ― and that conservatives have been trying to undo for nearly as long.
But Republicans haven't been basking in the glory of victory. They've been trying to change the subject, as HuffPost's Igor Bobic and Arthur Delaney chronicled on Tuesday, by focusing on the leak itself, urging voters to focus on other issues like inflation, or downplaying the opinion's likely impact.
It's not hard to figure out what's going on here.
The majority of Americans think abortion should be legal, as polls have shown consistently. That's why Republicans have until recently focused on more limited causes like banning so-called late-term abortions, which polls better. But their agenda has always been to make abortion illegal, with state-level Republicans increasingly willing to ban it in all circumstances, including ― as HuffPost's Alanna Vagianos has documented ― cases of rape or incest.
Now they are on the verge of making such bans possible ― depending in part on whether Chief Justice John Roberts, reportedly the one conservative justice who doesn't support Alito's maximalist position, can persuade one of the other five conservatives to join him in a narrower ruling.
But even a scaled-back decision could effectively end abortion access in large swaths of the country, risking a major political backlash for Republicans ― one big enough to mitigate and maybe even offset the huge political advantage they have going into the midterms.
Back in November, Hart Research tested messages focusing on Republican efforts to overturn Roe. Not only did the attacks convince some swing voters to support Democrats, they also energized ambivalent Democratic voters, making them more likely to vote.
This has always been the great political hope of abortion rights supporters: that once the threat becomes real, once a decision comes down, it will convince the long-silent majority to act.
But political movements don't succeed if they don't have clear objectives, including goals that they can actually attain within the foreseeable future.
"Right now is a moment when people are shocked, grieving and angry," Leah Greenberg, co-founder of the progressive organizing group Indivisible, told HuffPost. "We want to be sure that as part of processing, folks understand where and how they can fight back ― and where they can have an impact on what is happening, whether that is at the state level, at the electoral level, or in their community."
Greenberg can speak to this with expertise because that's roughly what happened after the election of President Donald Trump in November 2016, when Indivisible helped to lead a backlash that defeated many of Trump's initiatives and eventually turned control of Congress and the White House back to the Democrats.
So what are the practical, concrete objectives now? Is there a way to protect abortion rights, at least for some people, when the Supreme Court has taken away the federal guarantee and there are no short-term prospects for changing its membership?
The answer is yes, there are things that can be done. Here are a few:
— Jonathan Cohn (tips, feedback jonathan.cohn@huffpost.com; Twitter @citizencohn)
