U.S. President Joe Biden's warning of "consequences" for any aid China may give to Russia's Ukraine war effort could force Chinese President Xi Jinping to choose between a longstanding lucrative trade relationship with the West and a growing strategic partnership with Moscow.
Based on trade flows alone, Beijing has a lot at stake following Biden's nearly two-hour video call with Xi on Friday, with the White House confirming that sanctions on China were an option. read more
Despite growing trade ties to Southeast Asia and an economy that is less dependent on trade over the past decade, China's economic interests remain heavily skewed to Western democracies, trade data reviewed by Reuters showed.
Siding with political ally Russia would make little economic sense for China, according to analysts, as the United States and European Union still consume more than a third of China's exports.
"On the pure economic question, if China were to have to make the choice - Russia versus everyone else - I mean, it's a no-brainer for China because it's so integrated with all of these Western economies," said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics think tank who tracks China trade closely.
China's ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, on Sunday emphasized China's close relationship with Russia.
"China has normal trade, economic, financial, energy cooperations with Russia," Qin told the CBS program "Face the Nation" when asked if Beijing would provide financial support to Moscow. "These are normal business between two sovereign countries, based on international laws, including WTO (World Trade Organization) rules."
Targeting Beijing with the type of broad economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia would have potentially serious consequences for the United States and globally, given that China is the world's second-largest economy and the largest exporter. As China's economy has ballooned to $16 trillion in the past 20 years, its dependence on trade with other countries for its economic well-being has diminished.